The day after I posted this about patenting green energy innovations:
Corporate Managers: Are You Failing to Obtain Maximum Value from Your Energy Savings and Green Innovations by Ignoring Patent Issues?, multi-billionaire oil man T. Boone Pickens announced
The Pickens Plan. This plan, if successfully implemented, will constitute a giant step toward reducing America's dependence on foreign oil by embracing domestically-produced green energy as a significant source of America's power. To show he is serious about this plan, Mr. Pickens intends to spend $58 million of his own money to publicize it and, if the number of radio commercials I have heard about his idea in the last week is any sign, he is well on his way to spending his advertising budget.
In the last week, much has been written, both laudatory and critical, about The Pickens Plan. You can check out some of the articles indexed by Google News
here yourself but, to briefly summarize, the plan calls for 1000's of wind turbines situated in America's wind belt—an investment of up to $1 trillion. New power lines would be needed to connect the wind farms to users in various parts of the US who are not currently connected to the power grid that would be fed by these turbines—an investment of up to $200 billion. Mr. Pickens states that about 20% of America's power needs could be served by a fully-functioning, wind-fed power grid. In a second part of the plan, natural gas that is currently used for electrical power generation would be channeled for use as a transportation fuel.
This post is not about the merits (or lack thereof) of The Pickens Plan, however. Rather, as an IP Business Strategist and Consultant (more info here:
www.jackiehutter.com), I am intrigued by the patent issues that will invariably arise when so much money is available for the taking. In short, with his announcement of The Pickens Plan, I think that Mr. Pickens may have launched a "gold rush" of patenting, which will be followed by rampant patent litigation.
This gold rush mentality is not unique to Mr. Pickens' plan. Rather, throughout American patent history, innovation leaps have spurred simultaneous patenting efforts in areas such as barbed wire, early telephone technology and television, and today's innovation leaps are no different. As one recent example, we have seen simultaneous patenting activity in recent years in the area of voice over IP ("VOIP") telephony (described
here). Looking back at VOIP patent history, it appears that anyone with a modicum of expertise in the area of VOIP thought they would strike it rich by obtaining a patent from which they could extract patent rents (in the form of royalties) from a company that actually sold VOIP technology. To give you a sense of the order of magnitude of patents,
this article states that there were over 2000 VOIP-related patents in early 2007, which is a huge number of patents for a technology that had not even been demonstrated to be commercially viable.
Given this large body of VOIP-related patents and litigation, it cannot be controversial to contend that patent complexity could have been substantially responsible for slowing widespread adoption of this technology by the marketplace. At a minimum, the massive investment in legal fees and time needed to manage this complexity took the participants' eyes of their respective businesses. It appears that most of the VOIP-related patent issues have been resolved in the last year, and I am beginning to see a resurgence of advertisements for VOIP providers, such as Vonage. However, it remains to be seen whether VOIP technology will be able to make up for the time and money lost to several years of business uncertainty caused by patent complexity and contentious litigation.
Returning to my predicted wind turbine patent gold rush, I ran a search today (July 14, 2008) and found that there are 137 issued patents and pending applications that use the phrase "wind turbine" in the claims. This number does not seem like very many patents and applications for a technology that is supposed to be worth $1 trillion or more. However, now that Mr. Pickens has declared that wind turbine technology has such a huge potential payoff, I predict that patent applications will be filed on every possible improvement in this area, whether perceived or actual. These increased filings will quickly result in enhanced patent complexity, which will, in short, substantially increase the cost of bringing wind turbine technology innovations to the marketplace.
Moreover, the wind turbine patent gold rush will enhance the risk of playing in this space. To date, it appears that patent litigation in the area of wind turbine technology has been
fairly limited and generally appears to have been settled amicably. With the predicted patent gold rush, wind turbine-related patent litigation will become rampant. Also, the identities and business of the parties bringing the lawsuits will change. That is, as of this time, any wind turbine patent lawsuits have likely been brought by manufacturers who had a vested interest in protecting their actual products from competition. In the upcoming wind turbine patent gold rush, many of those who obtain wind turbine-related patents will have no interest whatsoever in making or selling wind turbines. These "patent entrepreneurs" (an example of which I wrote about
in this blog post) will seek to obtain patent rents from the actual manufacturers, which will further increase the cost of introducing real innovations into the wind turbine playing space.
Certainly, patent issues should not serve as a barrier to implementation of wind turbine technology if the economics of this green energy source otherwise make it the right thing for business and society. However, any company seeking to play in this space must be cognizant of the effect that the likely wind turbine patent gold rush will have on the ability for them to succeed in their business plans. These companies must formulate and successfully execute patent strategies that will allow them to realize their business objectives, notwithstanding the rush of others to capitalize on this burgeoning $1 trillion market.